by Chris Harries

Few Tasmanians are aware of looming oil depletion and how profoundly it will affect their lives.

No matter who you are, your life is going to be significantly affected by the Peak Oil phenomenon.

As a Tasmanian citizen you will be subjected to surging prices for many basic commodities, especially fuel and food. This will affect things like the cost of travelling – for work, socialising and recreation.

• If your place of living or your chosen lifestyle are heavily transport dependent then you will be more affected than most.

• If you are already finding it hard to make ends meet, then your financial situation may become really precarious.

• If you have friends and family in far off places you may find it no longer affordable to meet up with them, and this may become a major cause for distress.

• If you are a business operator, many of your operating costs will increase and the profitability of your business may suffer.

The chart below shows the impact of oil prices on household and small business finances. In some cases the green wedge may disappear altogether.

There are many steps that you can take to inoculate your life against these stresses. Whoever you are, it will be prudent for every Tasmanian to take stock of their lives and take steps to build their personal and community resilience.

Ironically, the Peak Oil phenomenon will also herald many positive changes, enabling people to enjoy better health, more vibrant towns and cities, stronger local economies and a much stronger sense of community purpose.

Motto 1: Doing nothing is not an option.

Motto 2: Take sensible precautions now, whilst you can.

Motto 3: Lobby the government to take strong action in the interests of the Tasmanian population.

(Chris Harries is a long term advocate for sustainability and social justice policies. He is an active member of the Peak Oil Tasmania working group.)

by Margie Law

Peak Oil will pose a major equity and poverty problem for Tasmania. This is not a future problem it is with us right now. Both fuel and food prices are already reaching unprecedented levels and are mooted to rise rapidly in the near future.

Those people and communities who are already struggling to keep their heads above water are likely to go under – that is, unless concerted action is taken to avert major suffering. For government planners, it is vitally important to identify those most at risk early so that policies can be enacted to build resilience into vulnerable communities.

Some useful work has been done already. A major national study conducted in 2006 at (Griffiths University) mapped oil vulnerability across major Australian cities using a ‘vulnerability index’ for petrol prices and mortgage indebtedness. Unfortunately Tasmania was not included in the study, but it did show that the people most exposed to rising prices are those people who have large mortgages and who live at a distance from urban services and jobs. Outer suburban areas were found to have lower average incomes and travel by car more frequently and for longer distances.

Unfortunately this is just where much of our low-income public housing is located, and where walking and cycling to places is not easy. In Hobart we only have to see the distances traveled by people who live in housing subdivisions of Bridgewater and Rokeby, and then compare them to those who live in West Hobart or Sandy Bay. (The same issue is true in the United States – many of the subprime mortgages which triggered the global financial crisis in 2008 were located on the fringes of US cities.)

Petrol price increases will place stress on household expenditures, mobility and in the longer term, the very viability of some Australian suburbs. The nub of the problem in Australia is that our sprawling car-based cities are simply not suited to a situation where petrol prices go through the roof.

Australian Emeritus Professor Peter Newman illustrates this further, showing how poorer Australians fork out nearly 40 percent of their disposable income on transport whereas those who earn over $60,000 per annum fork out just 14 percent (see chart here). When both food and fuel starts to cost more than a family is earning then there is no choice but for them to go hungry or lose essential liberties that we expect Australians to enjoy.

What is being done to address this problem in Tasmania?

The Tasmanian government has taken some tentative steps 1) by announcing an oil price vulnerability study 2) by setting up a social inclusions strategy that is able to look at issues such as food security and 3) through the Tasmania Together project.

It is well worth contributing to these fairly low-key government processes, but the rapidity with which peak oil is likely to hit many Tasmanians may well result in these rather slow grinding processes being overtaken by events. They need to be matched with timely, hardnosed policies.

Reference:
See Oil Vulnerability in Melbourne, then translate that to Tasmanian towns.
See Peak Oil and Social Justice, for info on global effects of peak oil.

(Margie Law, pictured with daughter, has been an unflinching advocate for environmental and social justice issues for over two decades and ‘walks the talk’ through her sustainable living practices.)

by Dr Nick Towle

Your health and that of all Tasmanians will almost certainly be affected by peak oil. Whether the outcome is improved health or a deterioration will largely be determined by the ways in which we choose to respond individually and collectively.

For simplicity, it’s worth considering health in two parts, 1) health service delivery and 2) primary health, including healthy living.

Health service delivery – the hospitals, medical clinics etc – is what helps us to get back on our feet when we become ill and is what most people think about when we talk about health. It is the latter – a healthy diet, regular exercise, avoidance of harmful behaviours such as smoking and maintaining a clean environment – which actually gives us good health.

Underpinning both of these are some very basic elements for health, including: access to clean drinking water, nutritious and affordable food and adequate housing. At worst peak oil may challenge our capacity to provide the basics of clean water and appropriate housing for all Tasmanians, therefore we cannot afford to take any of these things for granted.

Peak oil may affect our health in many ways. Health service delivery is dependent upon long tenuous supply chains to deliver medical equipment and resources, including medicines. We also rely very heavily on transport, moving those who are unwell or our need to simply access the range of medical services.

Rather than guessing which elements are more or less vulnerable to peak oil an immediate task for local and state authorities is to map all of those elements upon which our current health service systems are dependent and assess the outcomes for each if we see a rise in energy costs, reduced fossil fuel availability or a combination of both.

There are many affordable ways for individuals to maintain good health – ideally before peak oil begins to take hold. It’s worth looking at the quality of your current housing. Are there simple measures to make it warmer in winter? Are there spaces where you could grow some of your own food?

Discuss with your doctor or family health care provider ways to improve your lifestyle and make choices that will contribute to good health for years to come.

An important strategy for maintaining your mental health is to join with others in learning about peak oil, especially those who have a positive view about the ways in which we can address the challenges ahead.

(Dr Nick Towle is an emergency resident and clinical academic with the University of Tasmania. He has a passion for health and is an advocate for sustainable living.)