Government (state)

Tasmania is well resourced to develop liveable cities and an economy that is much less dependent on dwindling oil supplies, but such a future is only possible if the state and local government act in concert and with due urgency. Tasmania needs an Energy Descent Action Plan in place so that appropriate reforms can be implemented strategically.

Send a ‘please act now’ to Minister McKim

May 252012

Dear climate / peak oil champion,

We are asking for a few moments of your time to petition the state government because we are concerned that it is sitting on an important investigation that should be made public.

To his credit, in 2010 Minister Nick McKim gained budget  funding for an important ‘Oil Price Vulnerability Study’ to be undertaken. The purpose of the study was to find out:

1) what sectors of the Tasmanian community will be  affected by rising fuel prices and

2) the best ways to minimize such negative impacts on  Tasmanian citizens, communities and the economy.

This is a very important area of study because growing  energy prices can severely compromise vulnerable people  and business sectors.

Now, two years later and 9 months after its foreshadowed  release there is no sign of the study. We do know that it has been completed and is now gathering dust in government.

We appreciate that it is very sensible for government to  understand these issues so that it can build oil prices into  its on-going policy formation. More so, the public has a right  to know. It’s high time this long awaited study was released.

So… please click here to petition Minister McKim now. Please ask him to bring this important project to fruition and thereby constructively engage the Tasmanian people in an  issue that is vital to their future.

You can add your name to this petition by simply sending the letter below to the Minister in an email: http://peakoiltas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Petition-to-Minister.jpg

(Just insert the URL link into your e-mail or you can save the image to your desktop and then attach it to the email so that it becomes visible.)

Please address your e-mail to: Minister.mckim@dpac.tas.gov.au

Alternatively you could print out the letter below and post it to Minister Nick McKim, c/o Parliament House Hobart 7000.

Please request that the Minister release the study now or inform you when it is to be released.

Peak Oil Tasmania Education Committee
24 May 2012

Tasmanian Government’s Peak Oil Study

Jun 022011

by David Hamilton

[This article refers to the Tasmanian government's Oil Price Vulnerability Study, currently being conducted]

Why supply is an issue too.

The Background Info section of this web site explains that oil fields inevitably decline, and since peak discovery was in 1964, global oil supply will shortly enter an inevitable decline – the “second half of the Age of Oil”. Thus, reduced availability will be an absolute constraint: oil will simply become increasingly unavailable, regardless of price.

Put simply, the fact of peak oil means the end of business as usual.

What decline rate is expected?
The rate at which oil fields decline varies from field to field; in addition the companies operating the fields can usually reduce the rate of decline or delay the worst of the decline by spending money trying harder and harder to extract the diminishing amounts of oil left in the field. Predicting the global rate of decline of oil supply once we are clearly past the peak is therefore difficult. Most predictions seem to be in the range 2% to 4% per year, but higher predictions can be found. If the decline is a steady 2% per year, then oil supply will halve every 35 years; if it is a steady 5% per year (at the higher end of the predictions), then oil supply will halve every 14 years.

The time frame for the Tasmanian Oil Price Vulnerability Study is 20 years, so even at the low end of the range of predicted declines, the availability of oil will decrease significantly over the period, as we appear to be already past the absolute peak of oil production. There is a further issue the Oil Price Vulnerability Study is ignoring: whether the oil that is available will be distributed around the world in proportion to how it is currently used. For example, oil exporting countries could decide that they want to slow down the rate at which they export oil to allow a larger buffer for their own use over the years.

What are the implications for oil supply?
Putting these factors together, the outlook for oil supply over the next 20 years is at best a gradual decline of around 2% per year; at worst a larger decline will underlay a tumultuous period which includes rapid changes in availability and conflict over access to oil.

What difference does including supply issues make?
All of us make decisions based on assumptions about the future. When we move house, change jobs, buy cars, we are assuming (perhaps unconsciously) what the future will be like, and often part of that assumption relates to future availability of petroleum fuels: petrol, diesel and jet fuel. A person knowing that price rises were inevitable might decide that given present and expected income and living expenses they could manage the price rises with a slightly smaller or more efficient car, or a bit less travel – life would go on much as at present. If however a person knows that fuel will be subject to occasional severe shortages and will consistently become less available, then they are more likely to decide that the future will be significantly different from the past, and change the decisions they would otherwise make.

Nick Towle et al’s table, below, summarises the differences that considering supply as well as price makes:

State government peak oil study

Feb 012011

The 2010 Tasmanian budget allocated funds for a $250,000 study that will look into Tasmania’s vulnerability to oil price rises.

Announcing the study, Minister Mr Nick McKim said that it is vital Tasmania prepares for when the supply and price of oil are less certain than they are today. “The key is to do this now, so we will be in the strongest position possible when it happens”, he said.

The study will be undertaken by DIER during 2011 and will consult widely with all stakeholders.

Watch this space for more. Click HERE for goverment media release.

UPDATE: The state government Oil Price Vulnerability Project will be conducting open forums for invited stakeholders on June 9th and June 10. Program Manager is Fiona Howroyd 0406 737 981

Transport – big changes ahead

Nov 142010

by Philip Cocker

It’s not possible to respond to oil depletion in Tasmania without tackling the transport issue head on.

As an Alderman I see business-as-usual played out in policy and infrastructure decisions on a regular basis. Millions are spent on developing more car parks to attract cars in to the city. Roadways are expanded to allow faster traffic movements. Then there is the political jostling to waste billions on the Midlands Highway, and on costly projects like the Kingston bypass.

The great tragedy behind these icon projects is not so much the waste but the loss of possibility. Imagine for a moment spending $60 million on public transport instead of the same amount on the Kingston bypass. Or tens of millions on free electric bus transport around the city instead of new car parking constructions.

Long-range plans to spend billions more on roads highlights a deplorable lack of foresight and strategic thought in our administrations – and a lack of political courage to move from the models of the past.

Spiraling petrol prices resulting from peak oil will be devastating for us all unless the necessary action is taken by all levels of government to prepare Tasmania’s transport system. This means judicious and timely investment in sustainable transport alternatives that will allow us to adjust our transport choices away from reliance on private car travel.

Instead of taking these steps we are doing the precise opposite – locking ourselves into urban and industrial transport patterns that can’t be sustained.

Sometimes when I see the lack of connection that humanity and their elected representatives have with these overbearing issues, I experience a desire to see peak oil come into play quickly, in order to force the necessary policy change that are needed. Those feelings don’t last long as I think about many of the potential impacts that carbon fuel shortages will bring and the pain and misery that would eventuate.

To cut to the chase, our transportation systems are over 90% dependent on oil and have been built on an over-reliance on cheap oil, as if it will always be cheap.

While there is some dispute about when oil production will peak, there is no disagreement that oil will soon be much scarcer and more expensive than it is today. This points to a future where oil prices reach $200 or even $300 a barrel. In this situation, the disruption to our way of life will be enormous.

Our ability to transition to a world “beyond oil” will hinge critically on the importance that our decision makers place on public transport, walking and cycling and the ability of technology to deliver sustainable alternatives to the petrol-powered car.

For the average citizen wondering how to respond, here are some useful tips to reduce one’s transport impact.

(Philip Cocker is an elected alderman at Hobart City Council. He is a member of the board of EcoTasmania Inc.)

Peak oil and planning

Jan 262010

by John Hayes

Planning is a political and a community activity. It should be about visioning how we want to live as a community in the future and how we would like our regions, towns and neighbourhoods to develop so that we can maximise social, economic and environmental benefits and minimise costs and adverse impacts.

Cheap oil has fuelled the outward spread of Tasmania’s towns and cities. Already unsustainable, this pattern of land use is likely to become unaffordable for many in an era of surging oil prices. Peak Oil demands a revision of planning priorities.

Past planning and real estate practice have separated out large areas for a single use – such as residential or industrial – and so have increased many journeys beyond walking and cycling distances. This pattern of land use assumes mass car mobility, cheap fuel and huge public expenditures on road building and maintenance. It tends to maximise benefits for some people but also shifts costs to others, and to future generations.

The reality is that cheap fuel is coming to an end and many Tasmanians will not want to, or will be unable to, travel everywhere by car in future. Many people and local communities will become vulnerable to the increasing cost of oil for transport and food production.

Planning for change in Tasmania

New planning schemes are to be prepared across Tasmania in 2011, in accordance with recently prepared regional land use strategies. These moves provide an opportunity for all Tasmanians to help create a future that is much less oil dependent.

The broad aim is to develop a hierarchy of centres connected by public transport, and a greater mix of uses, local shops, local industries and workplaces within walking and cycling distances of homes.

Agricultural land and environmental assets would be protected from urban sprawl and urban uses. More compact settlements would help to build more socially cohesive, equitable and healthier communities. Land use and transport would be integrated, to encourage active transport by walking and cycling.

However, the reality is that houses (and people) have been increasing in size and are still spreading out to enjoy the space and benefits that cheap oil has provided access to. Many who benefit from the status quo are sure to lobby strongly for business-as-usual (eg new roads) or against changes in their neighbourhood.

The new planning schemes will also provide for a range of environmental pluses: energy efficiency through standards (or exemptions); domestic wind and solar energy generation; green roofs and rainwater tanks; management of vegetation, landscaping, stormwater and waste recycling; community gardens; working from home; sunlight, daylight and solar orientation; cycle and footpath connections; bicycle parking and showers, and by allowing or requiring smaller lots and higher densities close to urban centres and public transport.

It should be stressed that planning schemes are only relevant where new development (or change of use) is proposed, they do not initiate change. Peak oil and climate change will demand much better integration between state, regional and local policies, to drive concerted action across all levels of government. Positive action will be needed to retrofit, renew and improve many areas.

Tasmania has a long way to go to meet best practice in its land use planning. For an insight into what’s possible it is recommended that readers visit the website of Danish architect Jan Gehl who has been advising on wide ranging changes to Tasmania’s cities to make them more people friendly and sustainable.

(John Hayes is a professional planner. He is an active member of the Peak Oil Tasmania working group.)

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