Sectors:

How to approach your local council

Jul 152011

by Chris Harries

How can your local council respond to peak oil in the best possible way?

Some councils are large and well resourced. Others less so. Some have progressive councillors elected. Some may have already taken steps to address the issue. Most have not done so yet. Some will be much more impacted by high fuel prices than will others.

In short, no one-way-fits-all. So here you go in 7 easy steps:

Remember: Approaching your local government representative is not as forbidding as you may think. Most people have an elected councillor living somewhere in or near their neighbourhood. They are normally quite friendly and approachable and (even where they may disagree with you) will listen, provided that you approach him/her in a courteous, respectful manner.

Here is a sample motion that can be put to any council:

    That a report be prepared to examine the potential impacts of Peak Oil on:

    1) Council’s operations
    2) Local businesses
    3) Local ratepayers

    That the report further examine some of the policies and practices of leading councils in addressing Peak Oil and report on their potential to be used for the benefit of the council and the community.

What can Tasmanian local councils do?

Jul 132011

The article below is a summary taken from an advisory report (pictured).

It’s a basic checklist for anybody who wishes to influence local government on the multiple ways that councils are able to respond to the Peak Oil issue.

Click here to download a complete copy of the report.

Summary

The decline of global oil production will radically change the way our societies are run: our transport systems, how we produce food, where we work and live.

There are a great many things that councils must do, and policies that need to be changed, if we are to have any chance of mitigating the economic effects of peak oil. On the plus side, some of these initiatives already exist (recycling, etc.) but these efforts need to be significantly expanded, and entire areas of policy remain unaddressed.

The continued expansion of road and air infrastructure no longer makes any sense. Forecasts of a massive increase in road travel over the next thirty years are based entirely on historical data, and will soon be rendered meaningless by peak oil. New major road developments run the risk of turning into expensive white elephants. Instead, we must start preparing for a contraction in all travel modes that depend on oil.

Food supplies should be of primary concern. Prices are already soaring globally, partly due to the dash for biofuels. As oil production declines these pressures are only likely to increase, and the dilemmas they pose will only sharpen in the future. In a world of constrained transport, food security will increasingly depend upon local supply. We need to start planning for these changes now.

The most fundamental change needed is in the way people think. Local policy will be fundamental to the transition to a lean-energy future, but councils cannot achieve everything by themselves; the necessary changes will require much greater co-operative spirit within and between communities in future. Hearts and minds are critical; now is the time to change them.

1. Preparing for peak oil
Peak oil means local authorities need to plan for the likelihood of rising oil prices and shrinking fuel supplies. First steps should include:

  • A detailed energy audit of all council activities including transport and buildings. This will point the way to immediate cost savings, emission reductions and greater energy security, and better prepare the authority for any short term interruptions to energy supplies

  • An in-depth assessment of the impact of peak oil on the local economy, environment and social services including food and agriculture, health and medicine, transport, education, waste, water supply, communications, and energy use

  • The development of an emergency plan to respond to sudden interruptions in oil supplies and/or sharply rising oil prices, with a particular emphasis on ‘at risk’ communities

  • Set specific targets for reducing oil and natural gas consumption in the local government, business and household sectors, by a significant proportion within a defined period

  • Encourage a major shift from private to public transport, cycling and walking, through investment in public transport and expansion of existing programmes such as cycle lanes and road pricing

  • Reduce overall transport demand by using planning powers to shape the built environment

  • Shape planning rules to encourage the greatest energy efficiency in new and existing buildings

  • Promote the use of locally produced, non-fossil transport fuels such as biogas and renewable electricity in both council operations and public transport

  • Prevent infrastructure investments that are not viable in a low energy society

  • Develop rigorous energy efficiency and energy conservation programmes that help businesses and individuals to reduce their oil dependency

  • Support the growth of businesses that supply renewable and energyefficient solutions

  • Launch a major public energy-awareness campaign incorporating leaflets, the internet and an expanded network of energy-saving advice centres. The more people understand peak oil, the more likely they are to support or accept demand management measures

  • Find ways to encourage local food production and processing; facilitate reduction of energy used in refrigeration and transportation of food

  • Set up a joint peak oil task force with other councils, and partner closely with existing community-led initiatives such as the Transition Network and the Relocalization Network

  • Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol and the ‘Five principles’ proposed by Post Carbon Cities

2. Peak oil and climate change
Council policies on peak oil and climate change should be closely coordinated and mutually reinforcing. Most policy options will help mitigate both problems, but where priorities conflict, peak oil must be given adequate weight. Councils need to understand and connect these issues in both strategy and internal and external communication, and should propagate this understanding into the wider local, regional and national government strategic framework

3. Education
Councils need to develop positive ways to educate the public about peak oil, to effect behaviour change and reduce oil dependency throughout business and the community. Local authorities should distribute educational leaflets to households in their area, focussing on positive solutions and the incidental benefits, such as the impact on climate change. The role of institutions and individuals, and the need for immediate action, should all be emphasized

Where councils already operate a service offering information and advice on climate change and energy saving, its remit should be expanded to include peak oil. If a council does not offer such a service, it should consider setting one up

Councils also need to conduct an internal education and awareness-raising programme to inform all their councillors, officers and employees on peak oil issues and the available solutions towards reducing oil dependency

4. Expand existing initiatives
Many initiatives are already underway at the local government level that will help the transition from pre-peak plenty to post-peak scarcity, for example: road pricing, energy efficiency/insulation programs, promotion of renewables, recycling/reuse. These can all be further legitimised as policies that will help mitigate peak oil; if the general public understand peak oil, they are more likely to participate and support local government initiatives in these areas

5. Organization
Each local authority should consider nominating an officer to develop and coordinate its response to peak oil both internally and in cooperation with other councils. Where possible, councils should set up a task force on peak oil

The council’s peak oil task force should partner closely with existing citizen initiatives which are already working on energy planning to foster community based solutions

References:
See also related articles here and here.

Peak Oil Forum – July 2

Jun 082011

This forum was a follow-up to a successful public forum held in 2010. Since then it has become evident that the most responsive arm of government to pressing oil depletion issues has been local government, which has close links with affected communities and businesses.

The forum attracted 80 people, including many local government representatives. A summary of proceedings can be downloaded HERE and a DVD is also available.

Meanwhile, if you would like to be put onto our update list, please click HERE.

Tasmanian Government’s Peak Oil Study

Jun 022011

by David Hamilton

[This article refers to the Tasmanian government's Oil Price Vulnerability Study, currently being conducted]

Why supply is an issue too.

The Background Info section of this web site explains that oil fields inevitably decline, and since peak discovery was in 1964, global oil supply will shortly enter an inevitable decline – the “second half of the Age of Oil”. Thus, reduced availability will be an absolute constraint: oil will simply become increasingly unavailable, regardless of price.

Put simply, the fact of peak oil means the end of business as usual.

What decline rate is expected?
The rate at which oil fields decline varies from field to field; in addition the companies operating the fields can usually reduce the rate of decline or delay the worst of the decline by spending money trying harder and harder to extract the diminishing amounts of oil left in the field. Predicting the global rate of decline of oil supply once we are clearly past the peak is therefore difficult. Most predictions seem to be in the range 2% to 4% per year, but higher predictions can be found. If the decline is a steady 2% per year, then oil supply will halve every 35 years; if it is a steady 5% per year (at the higher end of the predictions), then oil supply will halve every 14 years.

The time frame for the Tasmanian Oil Price Vulnerability Study is 20 years, so even at the low end of the range of predicted declines, the availability of oil will decrease significantly over the period, as we appear to be already past the absolute peak of oil production. There is a further issue the Oil Price Vulnerability Study is ignoring: whether the oil that is available will be distributed around the world in proportion to how it is currently used. For example, oil exporting countries could decide that they want to slow down the rate at which they export oil to allow a larger buffer for their own use over the years.

What are the implications for oil supply?
Putting these factors together, the outlook for oil supply over the next 20 years is at best a gradual decline of around 2% per year; at worst a larger decline will underlay a tumultuous period which includes rapid changes in availability and conflict over access to oil.

What difference does including supply issues make?
All of us make decisions based on assumptions about the future. When we move house, change jobs, buy cars, we are assuming (perhaps unconsciously) what the future will be like, and often part of that assumption relates to future availability of petroleum fuels: petrol, diesel and jet fuel. A person knowing that price rises were inevitable might decide that given present and expected income and living expenses they could manage the price rises with a slightly smaller or more efficient car, or a bit less travel – life would go on much as at present. If however a person knows that fuel will be subject to occasional severe shortages and will consistently become less available, then they are more likely to decide that the future will be significantly different from the past, and change the decisions they would otherwise make.

Nick Towle et al’s table, below, summarises the differences that considering supply as well as price makes:

Peak oil & Tasmania’s tourism sector

Feb 102011

By Dirk Reiser

How will Peak Oil impact upon Tasmania’s high profile tourism industry and all those stakeholders who depend on tourism for their livelihoods?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010) defines a visitor as ‘a person taking a trip to a destination outside their usual environment for business, leisure or other personal purposes’. From this definition it becomes clear that a visitor has to move away from their home. In the majority of cases, fossil fuels are used to do this.

The aviation industry alone consumes 243 million tomes of fuel/year or 6.3% of world refinery production (Nygren, Aleklett & Hoeoek 2009). Tourism, in particular international tourism, therefore relies heavily on the consumption of oil. Aside from transport, construction for tourism purposes is another high user of fossil fuels.

The relationship between peak oil and tourism, however, is not well-researched despite fossil fuels being vitally important for the very oil intensive tourism industry (Becken 2006; 2010). In the foreseeable future, demand will outstrip the supply of oil or at least cheap oil, therefore creating enormous problems for the globally growing and important tourism industry, destinations and societies.

Within a 60 year period the number of international tourist numbers increased from 25 million in 1950 to 935 million in 2010. It is expected that this number will grow to 1.6 billion by the year 2020 (United Nations World Tourism Organisation 2011). Moreover, IPK International (2011) estimates that humans took 9.8 billion global domestic and outbound trips.

Travelling is still very much a privilege of the rich in the developed world who are already over-using a number of available resources. This will have to change, in particular as there are more and more people from developing countries ‘joining’ in on the pleasure of experiencing a holiday – or economically poorer groups of the global society will be squeezed out of the travel market by rising costs.

Tourists, the tourism industry and destinations will have to change to adjust to the situation where oil becomes more expensive. However, research on the topic is very limited and tourism forecasts rarely consider price hikes or oil shortages as an important factor (Becken 2010).

In summary, the impact of less affordable oil is complex and difficult to assess, but it appears that an interdisciplinary approach to understand the many dimensions of the relationship between oil and tourism is essential in order to be able to manage the associated risk – especially for highly transport dependent long-haul destinations like Australia in general, and Tasmania in particular.

References:
New Zealand researcher Susanne Becken has studied the link between peak oil and tourism at great length. Click the link for a list of her studies.
Fuelling Tourism
Susanne Becken slide presentation
Environment-friendly Tourists: What Do We Really Know About Them?
Tourism and climate change: risks and opportunities

(Dirk Reiser is researcher at the University of Tasmania specialising in recreation and related issues. He is also on the Board of Directors of Sustainable Living Tasmania.)

State government peak oil study

Feb 012011

The 2010 Tasmanian budget allocated funds for a $250,000 study that will look into Tasmania’s vulnerability to oil price rises.

Announcing the study, Minister Mr Nick McKim said that it is vital Tasmania prepares for when the supply and price of oil are less certain than they are today. “The key is to do this now, so we will be in the strongest position possible when it happens”, he said.

The study will be undertaken by DIER during 2011 and will consult widely with all stakeholders.

Watch this space for more. Click HERE for goverment media release.

UPDATE: The state government Oil Price Vulnerability Project will be conducting open forums for invited stakeholders on June 9th and June 10. Program Manager is Fiona Howroyd 0406 737 981

Peak oil & local government

Jan 202011

by Corey Peterson

Local councils have a vital role to play in anticipating oil depletion and protecting their local communities and economies from its impacts.

Yet, to date, this critical issue is barely on the radar of local government authorities in Tasmania.

It must be said, the same is largely true throughout Australia, as reported in a recent edition of Australian Planner. In short, lack of preparation is leaving all Australian cities and local communities extremely vulnerable to the disruptive effects of petroleum supply constraints.

Well, it’s actually much worse than that: virtually every road, every highway, every building, every service that your local government has planned, approved or built in the last 60 years has been based on two assumptions – that oil will continue to be both 1) available and 2) affordable as time goes on. What happens if those assumptions turn out to be false?

Councils can’t be blamed for this whole-of-society problem. Like most households and businesses across the country, local governments tend to assume that ‘the market’ will eventually find ways to stabilize energy prices and carbon emissions – or that state or national government will. Meanwhile, much of the thrust of government decision making has been making us more and more vulnerable (for instance, by focussing on petroleum intensive infrastructure such as more highways instead of rail options).

There are some positive exceptions, but they are too often stand-alone efforts instead of being part of a larger national strategy. While it is true that government is part of the problem, it can also become part of the solution. Rather than focus too much on what is not happening let’s look at constructive things that are happening in some quarters, and how these might inform more far ranging efforts.

To date, two Australia council authorities have dealt with the issue comprehensively: Sunshine Coast (Qld) and Maribyrnong Council (Vic). See the links to their peak oil response programs at the foot of this article. In addition, the Municipal Association of Victoria has collaboratively workshopped the issue and has issued robust warnings about what to expect.

In 2006 Brisbane City Council convened what was probably the world’s first joint peak oil / climate change task force. Its report included 31 recommendations across eight strategy areas.

You and your local council

Every individual Tasmanian and every Tasmanian business is directly linked to local government in a variety of ways, so local government represents the most direct pathway to building community and economic resilience in the face of peak oil.

A key issue at stake is how to identify communities and small businesses that will become vulnerable to spiralling oil prices and how to protect those sectors. Anybody elected to local government in Tasmania would do well to look closely at these issues.

It will be much more sensible for local government to take a proactive stance rather than just react to circumstances that are foisted upon them by fate. In this respect local government has a major constructive role to play in strengthening their local economies through re-localisation and in helping to build community resilience.

[Note: Tasmania has 29 local councils. They need you. You need them. You can contact your local council members via this link.]

References:
Sunshine Coast Strategy Plans Maribyrnong Council Peak Oil Contingency Plan
See this reference also.
What can local councils do about peak oil? (An extract from Post Carbon Cities Guidebook)

(Corey Peterson is President of Sustainable Living Tasmania and has worked as a sustainability project officer in Tasmanian high schools and at the University of Tasmania. )

Peak oil and you

Jan 142011

by Chris Harries

Few Tasmanians are aware of looming oil depletion and how profoundly it will affect their lives.

No matter who you are, your life is going to be significantly affected by the Peak Oil phenomenon.

As a Tasmanian citizen you will be subjected to surging prices for many basic commodities, especially fuel and food. This will affect things like the cost of travelling – for work, socialising and recreation.

    • If your place of living or your chosen lifestyle are heavily transport dependent then you will be more affected than most.

    • If you are already finding it hard to make ends meet, then your financial situation may become really precarious.

    • If you have friends and family in far off places you may find it no longer affordable to meet up with them, and this may become a major cause for distress.

    • If you are a business operator, many of your operating costs will increase and the profitability of your business may suffer.

The chart below shows the impact of oil prices on household and small business finances. In some cases the green wedge may disappear altogether.

There are many steps that you can take to inoculate your life against these stresses. Whoever you are, it will be prudent for every Tasmanian to take stock of their lives and take steps to build their personal and community resilience.

Ironically, the Peak Oil phenomenon will also herald many positive changes, enabling people to enjoy better health, more vibrant towns and cities, stronger local economies and a much stronger sense of community purpose.

Motto 1: Doing nothing is not an option.

Motto 2: Take sensible precautions now, whilst you can.

Motto 3: Lobby the government to take strong action in the interests of the Tasmanian population.

(Chris Harries is a long term advocate for sustainability and social justice policies. He is an active member of the Peak Oil Tasmania working group.)

How to get on board.

Jan 022011

By Rachel Roddam

There are lots of reasons to get Transition happening in your street or suburb.

Transition is a great excuse to meet some of our basic needs. Belonging. Contributing. Connecting. Companionship. It’s also a great way to find all those wonderful people who know about growing good food at home, who care about climate change and who are looking to act to create the future we desire – a future with more time for family, less pollution, fewer deadlines, more celebration. Sounds great, doesn’t it, so how do we get started?

A good starting point is to get in touch with some existing Transition groups. You can find someone to talk to at Sustainable Living Tasmania, or look up Transition groups here: Or you might like to start a conversation on the Transition Tasmania social network site.

Now, how would it look if you put word out in your community, and a good number of people turned up to hear about Transition and to jump on board? How would that happen? Some of us kick started by gathering friends to help out, book a venue (your local school? hall?) find a speaker (ask Sustainable Living Tasmania) or choose a movie to show. Power of Community gives a good rundown on Peak Oil, and is very positive. There’s a big list here of relevant flicks.

Be sure to supply hot drinks and some good tucker, preferably something home cooked or from the garden, to demonstrate how great Transition can be.

Put together a website where people can connect. I strongly recommend Wiser Earth as it provides connections to like minded people and resources both locally and globally.

Have pen and paper available so that attendees can sign up, providing their phone and email. Give them a business card with your website, a phone number and email address on it. Be sure to ask if people are interested in driving the group, in attending workshops, sharing produce… allow time for a discussion circle about what people would like to see happen in their patch, and what they are willing to do to make that happen.

There are over 25 Tasmanian Transition groups. Be sure to connect with existing groups for a helping hand. They will be motivated by connecting with you too.

Transition is an organic process, and the shape it takes will be influenced by the passions and resources of those involved.

There are many people out there looking to turn their climate change worries into a positive energy. Many too are looking for some guidance in living a sustainable lifestyle, and to cut their living costs. Transition makes sense, and it is what many of us are longing for.

Remember to imagine how Transition in your patch will look as a success, and go for it.

(Rachel Roddam [Dip. Mech. Eng.] lives in a shed with her three children in the Derwent Valley. She is turning her 6.5 acre patch into food forest and is passionate about the Transition Towns movement. Rachel’s art has been used to promote Transition as far as Denmark and California. Contact: rachel@zaba.me for support in kick starting your Transition initiative.)

Peal oil & vulnerable communities

Jan 012011

by Margie Law

Peak Oil will pose a major equity and poverty problem for Tasmania. This is not a future problem it is with us right now. Both fuel and food prices are already reaching unprecedented levels and are mooted to rise rapidly in the near future.

Those people and communities who are already struggling to keep their heads above water are likely to go under – that is, unless concerted action is taken to avert major suffering. For government planners, it is vitally important to identify those most at risk early so that policies can be enacted to build resilience into vulnerable communities.

Some useful work has been done already. A major national study conducted in 2006 at (Griffiths University) mapped oil vulnerability across major Australian cities using a ‘vulnerability index’ for petrol prices and mortgage indebtedness. Unfortunately Tasmania was not included in the study, but it did show that the people most exposed to rising prices are those people who have large mortgages and who live at a distance from urban services and jobs. Outer suburban areas were found to have lower average incomes and travel by car more frequently and for longer distances.

Unfortunately this is just where much of our low-income public housing is located, and where walking and cycling to places is not easy. In Hobart we only have to see the distances traveled by people who live in housing subdivisions of Bridgewater and Rokeby, and then compare them to those who live in West Hobart or Sandy Bay. (The same issue is true in the United States – many of the subprime mortgages which triggered the global financial crisis in 2008 were located on the fringes of US cities.)

Petrol price increases will place stress on household expenditures, mobility and in the longer term, the very viability of some Australian suburbs. The nub of the problem in Australia is that our sprawling car-based cities are simply not suited to a situation where petrol prices go through the roof.

Australian Emeritus Professor Peter Newman illustrates this further, showing how poorer Australians fork out nearly 40 percent of their disposable income on transport whereas those who earn over $60,000 per annum fork out just 14 percent (see chart here). When both food and fuel starts to cost more than a family is earning then there is no choice but for them to go hungry or lose essential liberties that we expect Australians to enjoy.

What is being done to address this problem in Tasmania?

The Tasmanian government has taken some tentative steps 1) by announcing an oil price vulnerability study 2) by setting up a social inclusions strategy that is able to look at issues such as food security and 3) through the Tasmania Together project.

It is well worth contributing to these fairly low-key government processes, but the rapidity with which peak oil is likely to hit many Tasmanians may well result in these rather slow grinding processes being overtaken by events. They need to be matched with timely, hardnosed policies.

Reference:
See Oil Vulnerability in Melbourne, then translate that to Tasmanian towns.
See Peak Oil and Social Justice, for info on global effects of peak oil.

(Margie Law, pictured with daughter, has been an unflinching advocate for environmental and social justice issues for over two decades and ‘walks the talk’ through her sustainable living practices.)

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